Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.092590 13.857976 15.762369 17.965819 20.441323 23.132762 26.276625
2025-04-06 9.394289 11.756044 14.504011 17.922999 22.047108 26.844632 32.830386
2025-04-13 7.558086 10.027808 13.048311 16.988072 21.961938 28.000825 35.852230
2025-04-20 6.722311 9.383263 12.780628 17.394225 23.447521 31.064890 41.313001
2025-04-27 6.061374 8.844719 12.533758 17.720646 24.753948 33.877391 46.510169
2025-05-04 5.374933 8.179186 12.028983 17.620379 25.436949 35.863496 50.685393
2025-05-11 4.757482 7.532426 11.470081 17.364931 25.841968 37.443966 54.338815
2025-05-18 4.315971 7.089149 11.146185 17.390642 26.604444 39.511530 58.718647
2025-05-25 3.982356 6.769879 10.965399 17.590989 27.601282 41.925693 63.666771
2025-06-01 3.637977 6.396225 10.664343 17.574574 28.255951 43.855900 67.983493
2025-06-08 3.301062 5.999230 10.289227 17.405383 28.650853 45.400875 71.779982
2025-06-15 3.070911 5.755223 10.131673 17.555022 29.525624 47.678063 76.738755
2025-06-22 2.933154 5.661842 10.218803 18.114303 31.092644 51.108750 83.651139
2025-06-29 2.674106 5.330709 9.884523 17.957735 31.504415 52.778479 87.939664
2025-07-06 2.319288 4.788892 9.143965 17.058875 30.637571 52.379060 88.948768
2025-07-13 2.207616 4.687958 9.161627 17.453086 31.927825 55.458173 95.582114
2025-07-20 2.095904 4.575388 9.147483 17.785273 33.122406 58.423832 102.142008
2025-07-27 1.933137 4.346122 8.901262 17.683018 33.556366 60.148931 106.737246
2025-08-03 1.765814 4.090541 8.584638 17.427329 33.699454 61.383167 110.555351
2025-08-10 1.648293 3.926084 8.427512 17.452922 34.336547 63.468263 115.866321
2025-08-17 1.560617 3.816218 8.367111 17.653982 35.295168 66.135437 122.256194
2025-08-24 1.456132 3.659211 8.200451 17.637490 35.848305 68.113945 127.530005
2025-08-31 1.344746 3.475340 7.964564 17.467764 36.101497 69.567013 131.935253